The bitcoin rally continues with the price reaching $10,000, a price target we have been talking about a lot in the last two pre-halving weeks.
The bitcoin price is up by 40% compared to January 1 and has erased all the losses caused by the coronavirus crisis in March this year.
Some have warned that a pullback is very probable after the halving as traders start taking profits. However, with the massive amount of tether in the crypto markets right now, which is 6 times bigger compared to the 2017 epic rally, everything is possible.
We are approaching the third bitcoin halving nearly a decade after the bitcoin creation and it is scheduled to happen on May 12. The event will cut in half the miners’ reward from 12,5 BTC to 6,25 BTC per block.
Bitcoin is unpredictable and nobody knows how the bitcoin price will react to the cut supply but strong volatility is expected after the halving, and in the long term investors are confident in the bitcoin bullish trend.
“With the Bitcoin halving fast approaching, we believe a short-term pullback is highly likely immediately post-halving, as traders begin taking profits,” said Lennard Neo, head of research at Stack AM Pte., which provides cryptocurrency trackers and index funds. “In the longer-term, however, we can expect Bitcoin to register significant price appreciation toward the end of 2020 and early 2021.”
Because of the monetary and fiscal stimulus the global stock markets surged after registering heavy losses in March in the panic sell-off caused by the lockdown of the economy.
However investors are concerned about how governments with handle the crisis in the coming days as new problems may arise.
Only in the last week, 3.2 million Americans have filed for unemployment benefits. The total number of jobless benefits since the start of the corona crisis is 33.3 million which is 20% of the total workforce in the US.
The Bitcoin Futures market has concerning signals in the pre-halving surge. This is what James Li, a data scientist at CryptoCompare thinks:
“After the spike in volatility following the mid-March crash, the gradual and steady recovery has led implied volatility to calm down.
However, with the strong rally, we saw at the end of April, the options market is now expecting more volatile moves leading up to and after halving, regardless of the direction. The longer-term expiries, in September and December, haven’t seen as much of a strong reaction, suggesting that volatility is expected to be dampened in the long run post halving.”
Some investors think that the bitcoin halving is priced in and a price drop is more probable after the halving. This is what Edouard Hindi, partner at Mayfair-based Tyr hedge fund, thinks:
“We expect the effect of the halving will have already been priced in, which means this 2020 event will be anticlimactic for many.
We may see the market drop by 25% to 35% from the peak, but we expect it to be followed by a period of range-bound trading over a number of months, and then a gradual move back up. The longer-term horizon for bitcoin is extremely bullish”
Hindi ends up predicting targets of $100,000 to $125,000 in the next few years.
During the past halvings, the bitcoin price corrected after the halving. This time we are heading to a financial crisis comparable to the great depression and massive bailout fiat money injected in the economy. Bitcoin has never been tested in such situations and the outcome remains to be seen.
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