Historically November and December have been months with big moves for bitcoin and the crypto markets in general. Investors and traders have been paying more attention to bitcoin and cryptos in the last weeks as crypto markets may be poised for big moves.
In November 2018 bitcoin price went down from $6,000 to $3,000 losing nearly 50% in a sharp move, while in 2017 bitcoin went from $5,000 to $20,000 between November and December. If we go more back in time in 2013, the bitcoin price jumped from $200 to $1,000 in December.
While the pattern is well known among crypto traders the reason for these sharp moves at the end of the year is unclear with a lot of speculation around it.
While some analysts are excited for a potential move to the upside, others think that we should be cautious because the sharp moves in 2017 and 2018 were just irrational moves and markets returned to normal after that.
A year ago, today was the day Bitcoin started its drop from $6,000 to $3,000.
Two years ago, today was the day Bitcoin started its parabolic rise from $6,700 to $20,000.
— Rhythm (@Rhythmtrader) November 14, 2019
In November, bitcoin price has been on the losing 6% downside since the beginning of the month, while in September bitcoin went down from $10,000 to $7,700 suddenly and then climbing again on 25 October from $7300 to $10,20 leaving most of the analysts struggling to find any explanation to justify this massive moves.
Meanwhile, the trading range tightens bitcoin could be preparing for a big move but the question is, we are going up or down!
According to Bloomberg analysts, the tightening of range between the 50 and 200 MA is a sell signal.
“The best way to describe the market is it’s retracing last year’s bear market,” said Mike McGlone, Bloomberg analyst.
“It’s in no hurry to take out the old highs—there’s a hangover of residual selling from the parabolic rally in 2017. There’s just a lot of people who bought it, got way too overextended, who will be responsive sellers.”
However, there are many catalysts that tend to make crypto analysts think that the bitcoin price will go up. One of these catalysts is the increase of interest in bitcoin mining only a few months before the bitcoin block reward halving with miners rushing to mine the digital gold.
The price of bitcoin could not go under the production cost and the actual cost is nearly $6,000 per bitcoin and it will double in May 2020 after the halving. Also, the market actually has to absorb 1,800 newly mined bitcoins daily but after the halving, the market will have to absorb only 900 newly mined bitcoins daily.
However, bitcoin production cost is calculated taking into account several variables so in a scenario when the price goes down heavily, miners might switch off their machines and network difficulty readjust to make mining profitable even at low prices.
Support at $8,400 must hold says crypto analyst DonAlti and it would be a good entry point but it breaks more downside is expected.
As outlined weeks ago, $8350~ hit.
Only needs to wick back up and we’re good.
If it doesn’t and we start closing dailies/weeklies below 8.2-8.3k bias has to flip bearish. pic.twitter.com/npWDBlBXFc
— DonAlt (@CryptoDonAlt) November 15, 2019
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